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There are many important decision problems where learning through experimentation is costly or impossible. In these situations, individuals may try to learn from observing the outcomes of others who have made similar decisions. Often, however, information about others comprises a selected...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011982107
The standard framework for analyzing games with incomplete information models players as if they have an infinite depth of reasoning, which is not always consistent with experimental evidence. This paper generalizes the type spaces of Harsanyi (1967-1968) so that players can have a finite depth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009782099
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012793285
The recent nonexperimental literature on social learning focuses on showing that observational learning exists, that is, individuals do indeed draw inferences by observing the actions of others. We take this literature a step further by analyzing whether individuals are Bayesian social learners....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008657261
We develop and estimate a model of consumer search with spatial learning. Consumers make inferences from previously … searched objects to unsearched objects that are nearby in attribute space, generating path dependence in search sequences. The … estimated model rationalizes patterns in data on online consumer search paths: search tends to converge to the chosen product in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372454
We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012856401
We study an individual who faces a dynamic decision problem in which the process of information arrival is unobserved by the analyst. We derive two utility representations of preferences over menus of acts that capture the individual's uncertainty about his future beliefs. The most general...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101281
Consider a multi-sector general equilibrium model where firms have incomplete information about the returns to scale of their production and where that information is sequentially updated once real production is observed. What is the impact of this learning dynamics on the market-wise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013323833
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013455038
We study settings in which, prior to playing an incomplete information game, players observe many draws of private signals about the state from some information structure. Signals are i.i.d. across draws, but may display arbitrary correlation across players. For each information structure, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013215438