Showing 1 - 10 of 547
circle: (i) increasing complexity; (ii) wicked characteristics of policies; (iii) heigthening role of psychological factors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010414861
Measuring economic uncertainty is crucial for understanding investment decisions by individuals and firms. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034114
Uncertainty in economics is generated by “nature” but also by the model we use to “produce the future”. The production of the future comprises besides the allocation of resources on different instruments (technologies, financial products) also the design of the instruments....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011550229
Economic uncertainty has to do with the consequences of actions under different circumstances. This raises two questions: First, how sensitive are the outcomes of actions to variations in the environment? Second, how clearly can we distinguish between environments? Robustness comes at the price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326624
We consider a society with informed individuals (adults) and naive individuals (children). Adults are altruistic towards their own children and possess information that allows to better predict the behavior of other adults. Children benefit from adopting behaviors that conform to the social norm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010224768
This article aims to build through the collection of inputs from prior research, regulatory input and practitioner's experience, a comprehensive definition of risk.Risk is not measurable uncertainty nor volatility. Risk is a three part concept: (1) risk is the potential that events may have an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998705
We show theoretically that when Bayesian investors face time-series uncertainty about assets' risk exposures, differences in their priors affect the pricing of risk in the cross-section: different priors for the same asset can generate differences in perceived risk exposures, and thereby...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012935196
Quarterly earnings conference calls convey fundamental information, as well as manager and analyst opinion about the firm. We examine how market uncertainty regarding firm valuation is affected by conference call tones. Using textual analysis of all publicly available earnings calls (2002-2012)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937396
We analyze in this chapter decision-making when costs and benefits of an action are uncertain, that is, when future preferences are uncertain. We begin, in Section 2, with the classical analysis by Krutilla et al. (1972) of whether the expected consumer's surplus is a correct measure of the net...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014023926
search and information gathering can capture both information demand and unresolved uncertainty, which has implications for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289336