This paper discusses the role that the economics of uncertainty has played in the theory of public finance. From being mostly concerned with its choice-theoretic foundations in the 1950s and ‘60s, the theory of expected utility maximization and risk averse behaviour has contributed decisively...

Flooding is among the costliest natural disasters in the United States. Although the federal government provides floodplain boundary maps and subsidizes insurance, demand remains extremely low. This paper assembles the most comprehensive set of files ever compiled on flood risk and insurance to...

Consider legal uncertainty as uncertainty about the legality of a specific action. In particular, suppose that the threshold of legality is uncertain. I show that this legal uncertainty raises welfare. Legal uncertainty changes deterrence in opposite directions. The probability of conviction...

It is widely held that better financial reporting makes investors more confident in their predictions of future cash flows and reduces their required risk premia. The logic is that more information leads necessarily to more certainty, and hence lower subjective estimates of firm "beta" or...

Consider legal uncertainty as uncertainty about the legality of a specific action. In particular, suppose that the threshold of legality is uncertain. I show that this legal uncertainty raises welfare. Legal uncertainty changes deterrence in opposite directions. The probability of conviction...

In this paper we assess the determinants of secondary school outcomes in South Africa. We use Bayesian Averaging Model techniques to account for uncertainty in the set of underlying factors that are chosen among a very large pool of explanatory variables in order to minimize the risk of omitted...

We embed the problem of public school choice design in a model of local provision of education. We define cardinal (student) segregation as that emerging when families with identical ordinal preferences submit different rankings of schools in a centralised school choice procedure. With the...

We embed the problem of public school choice design in a model of local provision of education. We define cardinal (student) segregation as that emerging when families with identical ordinal preferences submit different rankings of schools in a centralised school choice procedure. With the...

A kind of folk theorem in tax policy states that too much uncertainty about the impact of taxing (or subsidizing) a particular taxable attribute is cause for excluding that attribute from the tax base. I extend the optimal tax model to test this hypothesis. In my model, the government is not...

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks...