Using hand-collected data of commodity futures contracts going back to 1877, we replicate in the pre-sample history the well-documented cross-sectional commodity factor premia of momentum, value and basis. All three premia remain significantly positive in the additional 80-plus years of...

During the global financial crisis, stressed market conditions led to skyrocketing corporate bond spreads that could not be explained by conventional modeling approaches. This paper builds on this observation and sheds light on time-variations in the relationship between systematic risk factors...

This paper explains and extends my 2002 paper. It presents a return factor of illiquid-minus-liquid stocks, called IML, which provides a time series of the illiquidity premium. The risk-adjusted predicted return on IML is lower in the period that follows my 2002 paper but it is still...

It is well documented that the cash flow beta can partly explain the source of the value premium. This paper presents an empirical test that cast doubt on this widely accepted belief. We double sort the stocks with their value and quality dimension and obtain four corner portfolios: (A)...

We investigate the risk and return relationships of stocks, bonds and T-bills over the past six decades in Canada (1958 to 2017) and provide insights on some conventional folklore on a myriad of risk and return issues including investment duration. We also investigate the impact of NAFTA and the...

Value stocks outperform growth stocks. The academic literature provides two competing interpretations on what drives the value premium: exposure to risk factors or mispricing of securities. Existing empirical studies, which are largely based on U.S. data, have not conclusively rejected one...

We examine the informational efficiency of market ambiguity in predicting market excess returns and the equity premium internationally. Empirical results show a strong predictive ability of option-implied, and sentiment-based, ambiguity for U.S. stock market returns for up to three years. We...

The recent collapse of the stock market has refocused attention on the question of the equity risk premium. One of the most comprehensive studies of the equity premium, completed by Fama and French in 2000, is now significantly out of date and requires refreshing. This article provides that...

Prior research has documented the role of information uncertainty in the cross-sectional variation in stock returns. Miller (1977) hypothesizes that if information uncertainty is caused by differences of opinion, prices will reflect only the positive beliefs due to short-sale constraints. These...

Term premiums, defined as the excess return of long-dated contracts over short-dated contracts, in commodity futures are strongly predictable, both in the time series and in the cross section, by roll yield spreads. Strategies that exploit this predictability show sizable Sharpe ratios and are...