This paper derives ex-ante standard errors of risk premium predictions from neural networks (NNs). Considering standard errors, I provide improved investment strategies and ex-post out-of-sample (OOS) statistical inferences relative to existing literature. The equal-weighted (value-weighted)...

We investigate both theoretically and empirically how unemployment level and its growth affect future stock returns. We find that both a higher unemployment rate and higher growth of unemployment positively predict future stock market returns. In our model, the effects come through their...

We estimate asset pricing models with multiple risks: long-run growth, long-run volatility, habit, and a residual. The Bayesian estimation accounts for the entire likelihood of consumption, dividends, and the price-dividend ratio. We find that the residual represents at least 80% of the variance...

In the past year, generative AI, led by Chat GPT by Open AI and Bard, a language experiment by Google, generated tremendous attention amongst the public. Their impact on finance, law and general productivity are difficulty to articulate with words. This paper aims to strengthen the...

The publication of the Black-Scholes formula in 1973 appeared for the first time to put the pricing of financial options onto a rational and objective basis. While earlier option-pricing models relied on a subjective estimate of the stock’s uncertain future growth rate, the Black-Scholes model...

I assume that a market maker selects a buy and a sell price at her exchange to maximize profits. Up to first-order approximation, this problem is equivalent to a social planner’s problem and the problem of maximizing trader participation in the exchange. The optimal market maker rule has...

We propose a class of execution algorithms that consists of a strategic layer and a speculative layer. The strategic layer is an optimal trading schedule that encodes the trader's objective, her tolerance to risk, and the impact of her own trades in the market. The schedule of the strategic...

We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present in both discrete and...

In over-the-counter (OTC) markets, customers search for counterparties. Little is known about this process, however, because existing data is comprised of transaction records, which are only informative about the end of a successful search. Leveraging data from the leading trading platform for...

We explore how the demand for a risky asset can be decomposed into an investment effect and a hedging effect by all risk-averse investors. This question has been shown to be complex when considered outside of the mean-variance framework. We restrict dependence among returns on the risky assets...