This article documents how the changing composition of U.S. publicly traded firms has prompted a decline in the long-run mean of the aggregate dividend-price ratio, most notably since the 1970s. Adjusting the dividend-price ratio for such changes resolves several issues with respect to the...

Reduced-form models of default that attribute a large fraction of credit spreads to compensation for credit event risk typically preclude the most plausible economic justification for such risk to be priced--namely, a "contagious" response of the market portfolio during the credit event. When...

We find, unlike earlier studies, that there is no rise in the market betas of stocks that enter the S&P 500 index when the estimated factor model is that of Fama and French (1993). We also find that SMB and HML factor betas decline after the stocks are added to the index. This decline is...

We study the relation between order imbalance and past returns and firm characteristics and test a number of hypothesis including the disposition effect, momentum and contrarian trading, tax-loss selling and flight-to-quality hypothesis. These hypotheses make predictions about investors buy or...

We relate Schumpeter's notion of creative destruction to asset pricing, thereby offering a novel explanation of size and value premia. We argue that small-value firms are more likely to be destroyed by serendipitous invention activity, and investors demand higher expected returns for bearing...

This research uses macro factors to explain four standard U.S. stock market risk premia, i.e. the market excess return (RM-RF), size (SMB), value (HML), and momentum (WML). We find in-sample predictive power of macro factors, in particular at a one-year horizon. Differentiating between bull and...

We examine overconfidence among equity mutual fund managers. While overconfidence has been extensively documented among retail investors, evidence from professional investors is scarce. Consistent with theories of overconfidence, we find that fund managers trade more after good past performance....

With the arrival of the new millennium, many industries across the developed economies are increasingly facing volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous business environments-often characterized as VUCA-caused by a host of disruptive factors hyper-competition, globalized value chains,...

Sénéchal proposes a new analytical framework—the empirical law of active management—to assess the breadth, or diversification, and the skill of a portfolio manager. The framework requires no assumptions regarding a manager’s asset return expectations or investment process. The framework...

In this essay, we investigate corporate bond trading in a fully pre-trade transparent market environment using a unique data sample from the Swiss corporate bond market. Contrary to the U.S. market, the Swiss market lists corporate bonds in a central limit order book (CLOB). While dealers place...