We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present in both discrete and...

This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Indian rupee (INR) swap yields based on key macroeconomic factors using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach. It examines whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on long-term INR swap yields after controlling...

Using a news-based index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), we find that EPU is positively associated with credit default swap (CDS) spreads and negatively associated with the number of liquidity providers in the CDS market. A 10% increase in EPU leads to an 8.4% increase in CDS spreads and a...

I document that the term structure of one-period expected returns on dividend-claims is counter-cyclical: it is downward sloping in good times, but upward sloping in bad times. The counter-cyclical variation is consistent with theories of long-run risk and habit, but these theories cannot...

Rational expectation models generally suggest that assets with more exposure to systematic risks should carry higher risk premia. However, several empirical findings challenge this result. I propose a novel generalized recursive smooth aversion model that allows agents to show different levels...

We investigate the impact of monetary policy shocks on excess corporate bonds returns. We obtain a significant negative response of bond returns to policy shocks, which is especially strong among low-grading bonds. The largest portion of this response is related to higher expected bond returns...

We give explicit algorithms and source code for extracting factors underlying Treasury yields using (unsupervised) machine learning (ML) techniques, such as nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) and (statistically deterministic) clustering. NMF is a popular ML algorithm (used in computer...

This technical note serves to establish proofs for the list of statements in Bakshi, Crosby,and Gao (2019). We maintain their notation. Equation numbers not prefixed by letters refer to equations in Bakshi, Crosby, and Gao (2019). Section I studies the quantitative implications of the Vasicek...

We empirically study whether systematic over-the-counter (OTC) market frictions drive the large unexplained common factor in yield spread changes. Using transaction data on U.S. corporate bonds, we find that marketwide inventory, search, and bargaining frictions explain 23.4% of the variation of...

Comparisons are made of the CBOE skew index with those derived from parametric skews of bilateral gamma models and from the differentiation of option implied characteristic exponents. Discrepancies may be attributed to strike discretization in evaluating prices of powered returns. The remedy...