Für den IW Financial Expert Survey werden quartalsweise die Volkswirte von Banken und Versicherungen zu ihrer Einschätzung für die kommenden 3 bzw. 6 Monate befragt. Die Auswertung der Prognosen für das 3. Quartal 2016 zeigt, dass die Experten bis zum Jahresende 2017 im Schnitt von höheren...

This thesis was written by Nadjeschda Katharina Arnold while having been a research assistant at the Center for Economic Studies (CES) at the University of Munich. It was completed in December 2014 and accepted as a doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the University of Munich in...

Für den IW Financial Expert Survey werden quartalsweise die Volkswirte von Banken und Versicherungen zu ihrer Einschätzung für die kommenden drei und sechs Monate befragt. Die Auswertung der Prognosen für das 4. Quartal 2017 zeigt, dass die Experten für die kommenden sechs Monate...

The IW Financial Expert Survey for the first quarter of 2018 revealed that the surveyed experts predict, on average, higher interest rates and stock market indices, a depreciation of the Euro vis-à-vis the US Dollar, and lower oil prices by the end of the first half of 2018. However, despite...

This paper reviews the experience of the ECB with the two-tier system for excess reserve remuneration that exempted a portion of banks' excess liquidity (EL) holdings from the negative interest rate of the ECB's deposit facility. The two-tier system aimed to support the bank-based transmission...

Neither a gradually rising carbon tax nor emission trading schemes can ensure that the costs of emitting greenhouse gases, in particular CO2, will steadily rise faster than the general price level. If, e.g., global fossil energy prices decline faster than a carbon tax or the emission permit...

The writing of this article predates by several months the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the takeover of Credit Suisse which occurred in March 2023. It does not represent the views of the European Central Bank (ECB) and should not be construed as linked to or an advice for the winding down...

The existing econometric evidence on the relationship between stock indices and real economic activity is inconclusive despite theoretical arguments suggesting a long-term relationship. Previous studies indicate that the link between stock prices and growth became weaker in the 1980s. In this...

The trading of bonds and swaps largely relies on bank dealers as core market-makers. Dealers provide liquidity and trade the instruments with smaller or less active firms, in part by using their own balance sheets for inventory holding or hedging purposes. The reforms carried out in the...

In the IW Financial Expert Survey for the second quarter of 2018 the surveyed experts predict, on average, a steeper yield curve, i.e. a larger increase in the long-term than in the short-term interest rate. Moreover, the average forecasts indicate higher stock market indices, a depreciation of...