In this study, we investigate relative performance of various non-linear models against that of an autoregressive model in forecasting future inflation. We find that non-linear models have trivial forecast superiority over the univariate autoregressive model in terms of central forecast...

In this paper, we study main problems and practical issues of modeling and forecasting of macroeconomic variables in the national economy. For that, we employ astructural VAR models and estimate interdependencies among different economic variables. Initial data analysis of macroeconomic...

In this study, we investigate the nature and possible sources of economic fluctuations in oil exporting countries using principle component and impulse-response analysis. The principal component analysis shows that the first two components can be statistically significantly explained by world...

In this paper, we base our policy analyses and simulations on three different specifications of a DSGE model developed for a CIS oil rich country and check the impact of the oil windfalls. The first proposed specification is a classical one with a Taylor rule and the second one is a recently new...

In this paper, we investigate business cycle regularities in oil exporting countries. We ask the question whether oil exporting countries are all alike or whether economic fluctuations and the response dynamics of macroeconomic variables are similar. Besides we also test for the possible sources...

In this study, we investigate the nature and possible sources of economic fluctuations in oil exporting countries using principle component and impulse-response analysis. The principal component analysis shows that the first two components can be statistically significantly explained by world...