This paper compares forecasts of real economic growth from models based on the stock market and bond market data. Although both contain information relevant for predicting GNP growth, the bond market delivers more accurate predictions. The bond market predictions are compared to the forecasts of...

One version of the consumption-based asset pricing model implies a linear relation between expected returns and expected consumption growth. This paper provides evidence that the expected real term structure contains information that can be used to forecast consumption growth. The evidence is...

We propose a method for optimal portfolio selection using a Bayesian decision theoretic framework that addresses two major shortcomings of the Markowitz approach: the ability to handle higher moments and estimation error. We employ the skew normal distribution which has many attractive features...

Final working paper version. "" Published version: The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 31, Issue 7, July 2018, pp. 2499–2552. Past fund performance does a poor job of predicting future outcomes. The reason is noise. Using a random effects framework, we reduce the noise by pooling...

Currently the real, inflation-adjusted, price of gold is almost as high as it was in January 1980 and August 2011. Since 1975, periods of high real gold prices have occurred during periods of elevated concern about high future price inflation. Five years after the real price peaks in January...

Factor investing has failed to live up to its many promises. Its success is compromised by three problems that are often underappreciated by investors. First, many investors develop exaggerated expectations about factor performance as a result of data mining, crowding, unrealistic trading cost...

A mechanical rebalancing strategy, such as a monthly or quarterly reallocation towards fixed portfolio weights, is an active strategy. Winning asset classes are sold and losers are bought. During crises, when markets are often trending, this can lead to substantially larger drawdowns than a...

Gold objects have existed for thousands of years but for many investors gold has only recently become a tradable investment opportunity. Gold has been described as an inflation hedge, a “golden constant”, with a long run real return of zero. Yet over 1, 5, 10, 15 and 20 year investment...

In The Golden Dilemma, Erb and Harvey (2012) explored the possible relation between the real, inflation adjusted, price of gold and future real gold returns. This update suggests that the real return of gold over the next 10 years could be about -4% per year if the real price of gold mean...

The existing replication policies at top finance journals are far weaker than the policies at top economics journals. This paper explores both the costs and benefits of having a stronger replication policy in the context of my failed 2010 initiative to develop a unified policy across all top...