Bread of the Future : Climate Change, Agriculture and Food in Latin America (El Pan Del Futuro: Cambio Climático, Agricultura Y Alimentación En América Latina)

Does predicted global warming imply more hunger in the future of Latin America? Climate projections prepared by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are briefly presented, along with an analysis of existing estimates of their probable impact on agriculture and food security. Such impact estimates use two methods: Ricardian models and Integrated Assessment models. Some connected issues are also briefly discussed: sea level rise, Andean glacier melting, ENSO dynamics, and the probable implications for Andean peasants and other subsistence farmers in the region, as well as conceptual and methodological issues involved in the analysis. Non climate factors concurrently at play are also explored (demographic trends, agrarian changes, income growth and others). Unexpectedly enough, the resulting prospects for agriculture and food are not catastrophic