Finance-Growth-Crisis Nexus in India: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Assessment

This paper attempts to explore a new dimension of India’s ‘finance-growth-crisis’ nexus. For this end, the summary indicators of financial development, financial crisis and financial repression are created through the principal component approach, and we perform the cointegration and Granger causality analysis employing the methods of vector error correction model (VECM) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). The element of structural break is also taken into assessment while specifying the break date through the Bai and Perron (1998; 2003) test. The key findings are: (1) India’s finance-growth nexus is bilateral but exhibits stronger evidence on the causality of output→finance; and (2) economic growth, financial development and financial repression have significant long-run impacts on financial crisis.