Potential Impact of Referenda and Initiatives on Voter Turnout: Evidence from the 1998 General Election

This empirical study seeks to broaden the interpretation of the “rational voter model” so as to include the potential effects of “direct democracy” on the voter participation rate. Direct democracy is assumed to take two forms: initiatives and referendums. This study tests the hypothesis that initiatives and/or referendums may significantly affect voter turnout because although they may elevate the expected gross benefits of voting by “empowering voters.” Using cross-section analysis for the 50 states for the 1998 general election, this study finds that referendums did significantly increase voter turnout.