Predicting financial distress : importance of accounting and firm-specific market variables for Pakistan' s listed firms

This study is intended to identify the predictors of financial distress for the Pakistani firms. Variables used are the financial ratios representing profitability, liquidity, leverage, and cash flows, as well as two important market factors which are size and idiosyncratic standard deviation of each firm's stock returns (SIG). The sample consists of 290 firms stretching from 2007 to 2016 and logit regression is applied to predict financial distress. The findings reveal that profitability, liquidity, leverage, cash flow ratios, and firm size are significant, while SIG is insignificant in predicting financial distress. Results of the estimated logit model I, model II, and holdout model reveal that the models perform consistently. This study contributes to the literature by testing the market variables in relation to financial distress as these variables were ignored by the previous studies in Pakistan. Findings of this study are precise as the study covers a longer time horizon and a larger sample size.