Stability in long-term growth : evidence for a single deterministic trend in Germany (1870-1989)

This working paper presents analysis about long-term trend in economic growth by examining per-capita GDP in Germany for the years 1870-1989. It supports explanation for economic growth by way of a single, deterministic trend in market-centered economies, when holding non-economic features constant. This working paper's conclusions do not exclude the possibility that a change to trend growth in per-capita GDP occurs in the post-war German period; but it is suggestive that a single, deterministic trend is more influential than the surface data appear.