The future of the fence around the European labour market

In international forums the EU calls for freedom of movement for goods, services and capital. Freedom of movement of labour - labour migration in other words - is excluded from this claim, certainly in relation to medium- and low-skilled labour. This paper addresses two questions. Firstly, what are the effects of EU's restrictive labour migration policy on welfare within and outside the EU? Both welfare effects are found to be considerable. Secondly, is this policy sustainable over the longer term, say towards 2030? The paper evaluates foreseeable pressures on the fence around the EU labour market, coming from within and from outside the EU. The paper sketches policy options for dealing with the dilemmas that may arise from these pressures.