The Yield Curve, Recession and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: long run evidence 1875-1997

Most work showing the yield curve predicts future economic growth relies on post WWII data. We demonstrate that the yield curve has predictive content for most of the post Civil War period. This predictive ability, however, is closely related to the credibility of the monetary regime in place, something we measure by the persistence of inflation

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Year of publication:	2004-08-11
Authors:	Bordo, Michael ; Haubrich, Joseph
Institutions:	Econometric Society
Subject:	Yield Curve \| Monetary Regime \| credibility

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Extent:	application/pdf
Series:	Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings.
Type of publication:	Book / Working Paper
Language:	English
Notes:	The text is part of a series Econometric Society North American Summer Meetings 2004 Number 165
Classification:	E43 - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure Interest Rates ; E42 - Monetary Systems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System ; G10 - General Financial Markets. General
Source:	RePEc - Research Papers in Economics

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005063720