This paper incorporates the systematic risk of regime shifts into a general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates. The model shows that there is a new source of time-variation in bond term premiums in the presence of regime shifts. This new component is a regime-switching...

Conditional volatility models, such as GARCH, have been used extensively in financial applications to capture predictable variation in the second moment of asset returns. However, with recent theoretical literature emphasising the loss averse nature of agents, this paper considers models which...

This paper contributes to the literature comparing the relative performance of financial intermediaries and markets by studying an environment in which a trade-off between risk sharing and growth arises endogenously. Financial intermediaries provide insurance to households against a liquidity...

We model how excess demand or excess supply can be generated in the presence of a social network of interactions, where agents are subject to external information and individual incentives. In this context we study price fluctuations in financial markets under equilibrium. In particular, we...

Theoretical literature in finance has shown that quantifying the risk of financial time series amounts to measuring their expected shortfall, also known as tail Value at Risk. Unfortunately, little empirical work has been devoted to the problem of modeling and inference of such risk measures...

We provide an analytical and flexible framework to evaluate incentive options. Our model not only considers vesting periods and trading and hedging restrictions on the holders, but also specifically includes provisions of reloading and resetting to capture the fact that firms tend to grant more...

Most work showing the yield curve predicts future economic growth relies on post WWII data. We demonstrate that the yield curve has predictive content for most of the post Civil War period. This predictive ability, however, is closely related to the credibility of the monetary regime in place,...

This paper examines the relation between dollar-real exchange rate volatility implied in option prices and subsequent realized volatility. It investigates whether implied volatilities contain information about volatility over the remaining life of the option which is not present in past returns....

We explore the role of dealers to determine whether they are liquidity-providing market makers or liquidity-taking information traders. Standard models of market making, such as Kyle (1985) and Grossman and Miller (1988), imply a negative contemporaneous correlation between market maker order...

Exchange rate markets exhibit correlation in the short run, but the issue is whether such correlation lingers over long periods of time, and under extreme events (i.e., either large appreciations or depreciations). In this paper, we analyze dependence between nominal exchange rates under extreme...